Tracking a late-week nor'easter and whether or not local impacts will be significant
A coastal storm will develop offshore this week, but local impacts will vary greatly depending on the exact track of the storm which will become clearer midweek.
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WILL A NEARBY NOR'EASTER HIT US HARD INTO THE WEEKEND?
That is certainly the question of the week! We know a large storm will develop offshore, but unfortunately, still several days away from any potential direct impacts, there is a wide range of possibilities still on the table. Even minor changes with the many variables that have to come together for a storm like this can heavily change the forecast this far out. By Wednesday, the News 12 Storm Watch Team will have better, more reliable weather data to be able to home in on whether or not this will be a legitimate, significant storm locally or a storm that brings some coastal impacts and a gusty breeze, but lower impacts and far less rain overall.
It's a close call, though, and certainly a reason to follow News 12 weather updates throughout the week on social media, on-air and on the News 12 app. Regardless of the track, there will still be some coastal concerns with beach erosion, dangerous surf and the chance for minor to moderate tidal flooding.
Here are the two distinct storm possibilities:
SCENARIO 1: CLOSER TRACK
This would be the solution that completely ruins any outdoor weekend plans and is the worst of the two scenarios. This is currently being depicted most significantly by the ECMWF, or European, computer model. This solution impacts the weekend more than Friday and would bring steady moderate to heavy rain, the potential of damaging wind gusts between at least 40 to 55 mph, plus dangerous shoreline conditions with bad erosion, moderate coastal flooding and wave heights over 10 feet just offshore.
SCENARIO 2: FURTHER TRACK
This scenario would still be close enough for some beach erosion, rough surf and minor coastal flooding as we approach the full moon into the weekend, but would be a much drier and gusty, but slightly less windy scenario.
FOLLOW NEWS 12 FOR UPDATES
Both of these possibilities are still very much on the table as of Monday evening. Confidence will build by midweek and News 12 will be on top of all the forecast adjustments for you. For now, just keep in the back of your mind to check the weather updates frequently this week. If this becomes something you really need to plan ahead for and be cautious during, News 12 will let you know on social media, on-air and on the News 12 app.
