New hurricane model could lead to predictions over a year in advance
We are now less than a month away from hurricane season, and only just recently have the predictions for 2021 been issued.
Wouldn't it be nice if instead of a month and a half in advance, we received these forecasts a YEAR and a half in advance?
Researchers at North Carolina State believe it is very possible. They have recently developed a new model that could make this a reality.
The model aims at accurately predicting Accumulated Cyclone Energy, which is a metric used by forecasters to express the energy that is used by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime.
In order to predict the ACE, the model takes into account several key pieces of data, including sea surface temperatures, past hurricanes, El Niño and La Niña conditions.
Professor Lian Xie, a NC State professor who has co-authored publications about the weather model, says that the 18-month lead time will help citizens. government agencies, corporations, insurance companies and the tourism industry be better prepared.
"The longer lead time you have, the more time you would give people to prepare for what’s going to happen,” said Xie.