Another arctic blast of cold is back in the city this week, but there is the potential for an even stronger blast of cold next week, with roots that are currently located over Siberia.
With two separate blasts of arctic cold last week and this week, the theme of January has been very cold, windy, and dry. Next week appears to be no exception, instead doubling down on the cold. It even has the potential to be the coldest weather all winter.
Part of this has to do with where the cold air is expected to come from.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has a unique model known as the "Hybrid Single-Particle Langrangian Integrated Trajectory" Model (HYSPLIT) model.
While that sounds like a lot of science talk, the HYSPLIT model can track a single parcel of air over the course of 10days into the future or back through the past.
Where did it come from or where is it going? The latter question is what to look for next week.
Monday's HYSPLIT model projection suggests next week's cold air is coming from Eastern Russia, over the Siberia region of the country. Over the next week-or-so, that cold air will travel through the North Pole and Canada before diving down toward New York City. In that process, it could travel over 6,000 miles. Over the course of this cold air, it will inevitably moderate from the sub-zero temperatures, as it will be a mild weekend here before the cold blast arrives.
At this stage, forecast temperatures could dip close to 10 degrees at night midweek next week, with high temperatures in the 20s. That combined with the blustery wind, a common theme with the cold weather so far this month, it could be dangerously cold with feels-like temperatures approaching zero degrees or possibly even lower.
It is too soon to know specific details, but the HYSPLIT model gives forecasters a good glimpse at the potential reach and impact of cold or warm weather.
Check back right here and follow along on social media by following Allan on Instagram, X, Facebook, at @AWxNYC, for updates on this upcoming cold outbreak and the potential for snow next week.