A major winter storm is on track to impact New York City from Sunday through early Monday, with little change to the forecast. Widespread snowfall totals of 8 to 14 inches are expected across the city, with the heaviest snow falling Sunday afternoon and evening. Snow will develop quickly Sunday morning and intensify as the day goes on, with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour possible. Gusty winds, especially near the waterfront, reduce visibility and create near whiteout conditions at times, leading to dangerous travel and significant disruptions.

The forecast remains complex due to the interaction between deep Arctic air and a strengthening coastal storm system. While the city is expected to see mostly snow, there is uncertainty Sunday evening over whether warmer air aloft could briefly introduce sleet, particularly in coastal sections. Even if some mixing occurs, it would likely happen late in the storm after substantial snow has already accumulated, and overall impacts would not change. This would limit accumulations along coastal sections where the greatest chances of seeing the low end (8 inches) of the forecast totals. If we remain ALL SNOW, the high end totals for all regions is certainly attainable. We will have to continue to monitor this situation as the storm evolves. Either way, at the onset, extremely cold surface temperatures—starting in the teens—will allow snow to accumulate rapidly, an uncommon setup for NYC and a key factor in the storm’s severity.

Beyond snowfall, bitter cold will remain a major concern. Wind chills near -10 degrees are possible, with temperatures staying below freezing well into next week. Additionally, minor coastal flooding is possible late Sunday night into early Monday around high tide, especially in vulnerable areas such as New York Harbor and nearby back bays. While flooding should be limited and short-lived, the combination of heavy snow, extreme cold, strong winds, and coastal impacts makes this a high-impact winter storm for New York City.