Another key in making a winter forecast is to analyze analogs.

Analogs are previous years that had similar conditions to the present day. That includes El Niño versus La Niña in the Pacific Ocean, as well as our local weather conditions. Has it been a cold or warm fall? Has it been a rainy or dry fall? These three questions will help identify which analogs to use in predicting the winter ahead.

Like mentioned earlier, we are in a weak La Niña. Fall 2024 in the tri-state area has been one of the warmest on record and one of the driest. In fact, the dry fall combined with a weak La Niña is a unique and defining feature that will identify the analogs more easily.

The most recent analog with distinct similarities to Fall 2024 is 2017. The winter of 2017-18 was quite snowy with nearly 50 inches of snow in New York City, including four-straight winter storms in March. On the flip side, another recent analog is 2001. The winter of 2001-02 was one of the driest and least-snowy winters ever recorded. The way to determine what the analogs together indicate is by doing a weighted average, just like on a high school report card. The analogs with the most similarities in the three questions posed above were weighted three times. Analogs with some similarities were weighted once.

What do the analogs say? The temperature results were exactly as expected. Based on the analogs, it will likely be a warm winter. The data suggests 2.0 (F) degrees above average.

As for precipitation and snowfall, the data suggests slightly above average for both. The reason for slightly-above average snow is several analogs that contained significant blizzards and winter storms, like in 2017-18. That means this winter will have a huge boom-or-bust potential.

Analogs are only one of the keys, and looking at recent winters is also important. Considering that the last several winters have been significantly below average snowfall with no major storm, the chance of a "boom" is lower than a "bust."