A major winter storm will impact the NYC area today into early Monday, with rapidly changing conditions.

By mid-to-late afternoon (around 3 p.m.), warmer air above the surface is expected to move in, causing snow to mix with sleet, and then change mostly to sleet across NYC and nearby areas through the evening. Sleet can still accumulate, but more slowly than snow, and it will add weight and slipperiness to surfaces. Strong winds, especially near the coast, may gust up to 30–40 mph, reducing visibility and creating near whiteout conditions at times earlier in the day. Late this evening, precipitation should become lighter, with the possibility of a brief period of freezing rain or icy glaze before tapering off overnight. Any leftover precipitation Monday morning should be light, with improving conditions by midday.

Forecast uncertainty mainly revolves around how long heavy snow lasts before changing to sleet. Even a delay or acceleration of just one or two hours could mean a 2–4 inch difference in snow totals for NYC. Current expectations are for 8–12 inches total, likely made up of 6–9 inches of snow plus 1–2 inches of sleet, but small temperature changes could shift those numbers. If the precipitation remains all snow there is the potential for 14 inches. The overall message is unchanged: significant winter impacts are expected, especially during the daytime hours today. While totals may vary block by block, the combination of snow, sleet, wind, and cold will make today a high-impact winter storm for the city.