Winter weather outlook 2022-2023: What can NYC expect?
Forecast by Darryl Green, Allan Nosoff, Hope Osemwenkhae and Mike Rizzo.
Winter is right around the corner – so what can we expect this winter and how can we prepare?
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, we can expect warmer than average temperatures and near normal precipitation.
So what can we do to prepare?
- Check in with your local meteorologist for your day-to-day forecast.
- Know the difference between watches and warnings.
- Find out where the heating centers are in your neighborhoods.
- Make sure your car or vehicle has enough gas during extremely cold conditions, because in the event of being stuck on the road, you can stay warm in your car until help arrives.
- Dress for the weather (layers, coats, boots).
- Have a shovel or ice scraper ready for your vehicles.
- Always try to seek shelter or avoid going out during major snowstorms.
- Have extra flashlights, first aid kit, charge your phones and always have blankets in the event you lose power in your home.
Winter preparedness is key in getting ready for the winter season. There is a specific weather pattern that we can expect this winter. It is called La Niña.
What is a La Niña pattern?
A La Niña pattern brings a variable Pacific jet stream in association with a polar jet stream shifting further south. La Niña episodes in the winter months feature a wave-like jet stream flow across the United States and Canada, which causes colder and stormier than average conditions across the North, and warmer and less stormier conditions across the South.
Typical winter impacts associated with ENSO neutral events predict colder air favored across portions of the Northeast, due to a polar jet stream shifted further south. Meanwhile, warmer air is favored across the southern U.S., with above normal precipitation favored across portions of the southeast US.
What type of weather can we get this winter?
In New York City, we can expect brief cold snaps between milder stretches. In terms of precipitation, we’re forecasting slightly above average precipitation with wintry mix/ ice storms more likely for our area. The typical storm systems we get are Alberta clippers, which form in the northwest portions of Canada, travel east and dip south into the Great Lakes and Northeast. Another storm system we get are nor’easters. Nor’easters form along the East Coast and push further north, bringing rain, icy mix and snow. Snow squalls and blizzards can’t be ruled out either with any approaching frontal systems.
What does this mean for us?
This La Niña weather pattern will bring warmer temperatures and near-normal precipitation.
The World Meteorological Organization predicts this third La Niña pattern will become this century’s first “triple-dip“ La Niña, spanning three consecutive northern hemisphere winters. A "triple-dip" La Niña is back to back years of cooling surface temperatures along the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which can cause extreme weather events (such as droughts, extreme heat and excessive rainfall).
Based on the current setup of warmer temperatures and above average precipitation, the heaviest snowstorms might set up north and west of our area due to the warmer air we’ll be receiving with these systems. Overall, we can get near normal snowfall amounts this season which can help with our current drought situation. However, more ice storms will be possible, just like last year, due to the warmer temperatures predicted.
Your News 12 Storm Watch team of meteorologists will keep you safe and weather aware during this winter season.